Conference Programme

Demographic dividends in the lives of nations come but once in their entire history. Either a country succeeds in riding the wave of that dividend during a period of economic transformation by generating millions of jobs for its youth, who can then enter the labour market, or, if it misses the wave, the dividend is wasted. The latter can have very adverse consequences for nations, which this paper discusses briefly. Drawing upon the empirical realities of several major countries (e.g. India, and to a lesser extent Brazil, South Africa, China, and potentially the United Kingdom), we argue that if national governments fail to provide decent livelihoods for their citizens by fostering job creation and other transformations, they end up using their power to build a ‘grand narrative’ about citizens’ rights to work and a decent life, while becoming more authoritarian in order to control such a narrative. In this way, countries risk squandering their demographic dividends, while using institutions to build an illusionary narrative about ‘economic growth’ and ‘jobs’ in an effort to ‘sell’ their citizens on the idea that the government is actively working to achieve ambitious goals for the citizenry. In this paper, we plan to use the conceptual framework of the ‘narrow corridor,’ as defined by Acemoglu and Robinson. When faced with pressures from the citizenry, or from the need to remain in power, governments often 'capture institutions' without due regard for the creation of jobs or the consequences of ignoring demographic trends, whether the population is already aging or is relatively young, which may have damaging consequences for all. Achieving a balance between state power and the rights of citizens is critical for countries that are on the path toward achieving ‘positive’ goals for their citizens that promise economic growth and equality. This ‘narrow corridor’ is always a difficult path for nations to tread, yet essential for ensuring that citizens’ rights to decent livelihoods are realized, while simultaneously helping the ‘nation’ achieve its goal of boosting per capita income. Whether that path is one that ensures that state institutions strengthen the goals of both growth and decent jobs, or merely gives the semblance of achieving growth at the expense of livelihoods, may depend on whether the institutions of the state remain within the ‘narrow corridor’ or not. The paper maps out this tension, both empirically (based on data from countries across the globe) and theoretically, in the context of employment and demographic trends.

In dynamic games, a Markov equilibrium entails strategies that, roughly speaking, depend on “as little about the past as possible.” In this paper, we formalize this idea of minimal dependence. In previous work, we focused on complete information. Here we concentrate on games of incomplete information, and show that existence of Markov equilibrium there can be problematic. Accordingly, we propose a relaxation of the Markov concept that ensures existence but that still retains its spirit.

The financial crises of 2008 and 2020, coupled with unprecedented issuance of global liquidity and the massive growth of digital platforms, have led to heightened interest in understanding the nature of money and debt and their interaction in the modern economy. The exploration of these economic processes can be traced back to the 15th century, and is firmly grounded in the works of Luca Pacioli, Georg Friedrich Knapp, Alfred Mitchell-Innes, Irving Fisher, John Maynard Keynes, John Kenneth Galbraith, James Tobin, and David Graeber, among many others. This report delves into the contemporary phase of global financialization via employing a model featuring a harmonic oscillator with forced and damped oscillations. The analysis reveals that macrofinancial dynamics follow a second-order ordinary differential equation (ODE), elucidating actions by rational creditors who are usually offsetting anticipated losses stemming from rising debts. The interplay between money and debt generates oscillations and rotations in these indicators, modifies amplitudes and phases of the associated system states, and accounts for diverse characteristics of the macrofinancial cycle. New money creation, which is formally akin to an instantaneous impulse or a Dirac delta function, serves as the driver of a macrofinancial oscillator. The system’s response to monetary interventions might help discern the emergence of critical events, such as resonance or financial crises. The model presented successfully simulated the global debt reaction to the monetary shock during the COVID-19 pandemic. Debt cycles validate the hypothesis that stable prototypes of ‘imaginary’ or ‘virtual’ money did exist in the past, albeit in varying technical forms. Unravelling the intricacies of money and debt cycles permits the adoption of more robust approaches to addressing challenges stemming from monetary and macroprudential policies.

The fragmentation of the global economy is not purely an economic process. On the contrary, its primary driver is geopolitical confrontation and decoupling, which now appears to encompass the entire multipolar world. To fully understand this phenomenon, it is essential to examine all underlying root causes. Fragmentation represents a contemporary phase of economic globalization, in which national defense and security concerns take precedence in international relations. The past five years (2020–2025) have been marked by efforts to find new strategies and tools for balancing national security objectives with economic development goals. As IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath has noted, “Policymakers are increasingly… focused on building economic resilience.” Financial market fragmentation may significantly impact macroeconomic trends at both national and global levels. In this context, our study analyzes the financial aspects of emerging geopolitical blocs, specifically the US-centric and China-centric blocs. However, most developing countries prefer to maintain friendly relations with both. This evolving financial landscape underscores the deep interconnection between geopolitics and global economic trends, shaping the future of international markets.
The current trend of global financial fragmentation is shaped by several key factors:

• The rising economic weight of emerging markets: These nations are gaining real economic influence and power, playing an increasingly significant role in shaping global capital flows. China has been the most prominent player in this process.

• Financial markets outpacing industrial goods and commodities: A major trend in the financial sector has been the rapid accumulation of national debt (both public and private) denominated in foreign currencies. Financial “bubbles” based on foreign assets have expanded to volumes exceeding global GDP.

• The US dollar’s shifting role: Although the USD’s share in cross-border trade finance payments has declined since 2022, it remains dominant in the foreign exchange market, investment securities, gold and FX reserves, and FDI deal flows.

• The increasing use of politically motivated sanctions: Emerging market economies face growing sanction pressures, predominantly from the United States and its allies. A widening circle of nations is now concerned about the risk of being subjected to such measures.

• Efforts to establish financial resilience: Many countries are working to create a “safety net” against sanctions, particularly by securing alternative channels for international payments. These efforts include structural changes to the global payments system, the adoption of technical innovations, and the introduction of new financial instruments. A key trend in this shift is the gradual increase in the use of non-traditional national currencies for botthe h bilateral and multilateral transactions.

• National finance system of the Russian Federation was subjected to economic sanctions challenges in 2014 – 2025. The international sanctions pressure was introduced by the unfriendly countries authorities. Russian financial institutions have successfully adapted to the crisis environment. The banking sector maintains stable and efficient operations. The finance system sustainability mainly is a result of the banking sector coordination under the Government and Central Bank supervision and regulation.

1. Boosting the global competitiveness of Russian higher education has been a strategic priority for Russia’s political leadership. It has also been of significant professional interest among Russian universities seeking to strengthen their position in the international education and research market. This priority has been consistently reaffirmed through national goals and target indicators outlined in several key presidential decrees. The 2012 decree set the objective of having at least five Russian universities ranked among the world's top 100 universities in globally recognized rankings by 2020. The 2018 decree aimed to position Russia among the world’s top 10 countries in terms of general education and sought to double the number of international students enrolled in Russian universities and research institutions. The 2024 decree further reinforced this goal, targeting at least 500,000 international students at Russian universities by 2030.The implementation of comprehensive measures to achieve these objectives has resulted in significant progress in Russian higher education. Currently, approximately 390,000 international students are enrolled in Russian universities, and 105 Russian institutions are featured in global rankings, with 20 of them listed among the top 100 in their respective subject-based rankings. Additionally, HSE University is ranked among the top 100 institutions in the global rankings of young universities. In early 2025, the Russian government approved the Unified Plan for Achieving National Development Goals through 2030 and for the Future Until 2036, which outlines key factors and tools for attaining the country’s higher education targets in the coming years. 

My presentation intends to highlight three critical dimensions of Russia’s regional economies under current sanctions. The first area of focus is the Inflation and Interest Rate Dilemma. Drawing on local projections, a Panel VAR framework under the GMM approach, and other advanced econometric techniques, I analyze how interest rate instruments affect inflation across Russia’s diverse regions. By comparing short- and long-term lending and deposit rates for both individuals and corporations, this segment aims to shed light on the effectiveness of monetary policies in curbing inflation, while also considering how these policies may vary in impact from one region to another.
The second area examines the influence of regional corporate interest rates on firms’ financial performance, measured primarily by return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE). Exploiting a vast dataset—encompassing millions of observations—this part of the study explores whether short-, long-, and transitional interest rates exert a discernible impact on corporate profitability. It also considers the moderating effects of the sanctions period and the extent to which firms’ import or export orientation, along with regional variations, might shape the interest rate–financial performance nexus. By juxtaposing outcomes in different sectors and across different time horizons, the research aims to reveal patterns that may not be readily apparent in more aggregated analyses.
Finally, attention turns to how firms’ financial performance responds to both anticipated and unanticipated changes in the exchange rate. Again leveraging a large-scale dataset, I investigate how fluctuations in currency valuation affect ROA and ROE, with particular emphasis on whether the sanctions period, firms’ import/export profile, and regional disparities play a significant role in modulating these effects. This segment highlights the importance of exchange rate dynamics for business planning and strategy, especially under the heightened uncertainty of a sanctioned economic environment.
In concluding, I expect to outline several practical policy implications derived from the findings. These recommendations focus on optimizing monetary policy tools, refining financial regulations, and tailoring macroeconomic strategies to the unique conditions of Russia’s diverse regions—particularly in light of ongoing sanctions. Ultimately, the presentation underscores the complexity of managing inflation, interest rates, and exchange rate movements in a volatile global landscape, offering insights to policymakers, corporate decision-makers, and academics alike.

We will first give an overview of credit portfolio modelling and compare two approaches: the academic approach using correlated stochastic hazard rates, and the industry approach using copula functions. We will then highlight a major drawback in the current copula function approach. Finally, we will examine some potential solutions to the risk measure changes for credit portfolio risks driven by correlated stochastic processes.

The emergence of a multipolar world order since the 1990s has enhanced the importance of the civilizational discourse in international relations. Although ‘civilization’ as a unit of analysis is highly contested, its significance lies in its frequent usage in cultural and political debates. The discourse on civilization is attributable to three distinct developments in global affairs: the crisis of the Western liberal establishment; the rise of identity politics and populism; and the economic and political rise of Asian nations, such as India and China, with large populations and historically independent cultures and civilizations. The construction of civilizational identities is a multi-layered process that involves competing frameworks of political, cultural, social and ethnic affiliations. This paper will focus on how conceptualizations of civilization have an impact on political practices, identities and patterns of social interactions among states, resulting in specific foreign policy outlooks. It will explore the motivations for countries to put forward claims of civilizational ‘exceptionalism’ for a more assertive engagement in international affairs, while simultaneously challenging established global hierarchies.

The transformative impact of AI on the economics of sustainability lies in its ability to optimize resource use, reduce waste, and drive innovation, thus fundamentally aligning economic systems with sustainable practices. By leveraging predictive analytics and intelligent automation, AI enhances renewable energy integration, streamlines agriculture, and advances circular economy models, such as precision recycling. It also accelerates the adoption of green technologies, such as electric vehicles and smart cities, enabling governments and businesses to achieve sustainability goals while fostering economic growth. Ultimately, AI harmonizes economic progress with environmental stewardship, positioning itself as a key enabler of sustainable and resilient economies.